The monthly flow of new bank lending to the real economy — the largest component of TSF and the line the market reacts to most directly in each credit release. Seasonality is fierce: January's front-loaded "good start" is usually the year's peak, so every print should be read against the same month in prior years.
New RMB loans (新增人民币贷款) represent the monthly flow of new bank lending to the real economy. This is the most closely watched component of the PBOC's credit data release.
How to use it: Level shows the monthly flow, YTD shows the official year-to-date cumulative flow by year, and YoY shows the official monthly year-on-year growth rate. Because this is a flow series, level and YTD are usually the cleaner views for credit impulse timing.
Why it matters: New credit data is a leading indicator of economic activity. January typically sees the largest monthly figure as banks front-load lending. Persistent weakness in new credit suggests deleveraging or weak demand for borrowing. Quality lives in the composition: medium/long-term household loans are mortgages (the credit mirror of property sales), medium/long-term corporate loans proxy capex appetite, while spikes in bill financing are usually banks stuffing paper to hit quotas when real demand is absent — a month that hits its headline number on an outsized bills share is weaker than it looks.