Daily overnight rates from the New York Fed: the effective federal funds rate against the FOMC's target range, the full SOFR distribution (1st–99th percentile), and the underlying repo volume. Funding stress tends to show up here first — usually in the right tail — before it makes headlines.
This view presents short‑term overnight rates and policy bands: the effective federal funds rate (EFFR/FFR), SOFR percentile distributions (1/25/50/75/99), and SOFR transaction volume.
Why it matters: EFFR's position inside the target range and the EFFR–SOFR spread are the Fed's own scorecard for policy implementation. With abundant reserves, EFFR sits steady a few basis points above the ON RRP rate and SOFR trades soft; as liquidity tightens, SOFR firms relative to EFFR and the 75th/99th percentiles pull away from the median — dealers charging more for balance sheet into month- and quarter-ends. A persistent drift of EFFR toward the top of the band, or SOFR's right tail printing through IORB, is the classic sign that reserves are approaching the lower bound of "ample": September 2019 is the canonical episode, when SOFR spiked roughly 300bp above the target range and forced the Fed to restart repo operations and bill purchases. In the late innings of QT, this page belongs next to reserve ampleness and ON RRP balances.