Unemployment from the household survey: headline U3, the broader U6, duration of unemployment, and demographic splits. The unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, but its rate of change is not — the Sahm rule captures the self-reinforcing mechanics of rising unemployment (layoffs → income contraction → demand contraction → more layoffs). Its 2024 trigger without a recession was the rare denominator-driven exception: the rise came mainly from immigration-led labor-supply growth, not from layoffs.
This view presents U.S. unemployment indicators (e.g., U3, U6, demographic unemployment rates, and unemployment duration) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES/CPS), accessed via FRED. Select multiple series and a date range to visualize trends.
Why it matters: The detail usually speaks before the headline. The U6–U3 gap measures hidden slack (involuntary part-timers and marginally attached workers) and tends to widen before U3 moves; median unemployment duration lengthening while the rate holds still points to a hiring problem rather than a firing problem; and high-beta groups — youth and minority unemployment ("last hired, first fired") — amplify any aggregate weakening several-fold, making them a magnifying glass on marginal deterioration. Remember the household survey samples only ~60k households: single-month moves of 0.1–0.2pp are frequently noise, which is why trend constructions like the Sahm rule (the three-month average's rise off its trailing 12-month low) beat any individual print.
Tip: Click and drag on the chart to zoom/crop a time range; double‑click to reset.