Keynes Watch is a free, auto-updating library of the data macro and rates investors actually trade on: Fed plumbing and overnight rates, Treasury issuance and fiscal flows, near-real-time labor income, and China's monetary, credit and property cycle. Every series is pulled programmatically from primary sources — the New York Fed's Markets API, Treasury Fiscal Data, BEA, FRED, the PBOC, NBS and MOF — never rekeyed from secondary aggregators.
I built this site because the macro moves that matter rarely start in headline data. They show up first in the plumbing: the right tail of the SOFR distribution, the TGA's drain and rebuild, daily tax withholding, the M1–M2 scissors, the mix of bills and duration the Treasury chooses to sell. Keynes Watch is the dashboard I wanted for tracking those signals — published so anyone can use it.
From the overnight market outward: policy implementation, duration supply, the fiscal engine, and the labor data that leads the official releases.
Where policy meets plumbing: is EFFR drifting inside the band, are SOFR tails widening, are reserves still ample as QT runs? These are the questions that decide when the Fed stops.
The supply side of the duration market and the liquidity side of fiscal policy: what the Treasury sells, what the debt stock costs, and how the TGA swings bank reserves week to week.
Withheld payroll taxes hit the Treasury's account daily — employment × hours × wages with no sampling and no revisions, weeks ahead of payrolls. The rest of the block rounds out the picture the Fed reacts to.
The accounting behind the cycle: the Kalecki–Levy profits identity and Godley's sectoral balances, built quarterly from NIPA. A deficit is always someone's income — these pages show whose.
The policy-rate chain from the 7-day reverse repo to LPR, the credit aggregates that lead activity, and the property adjustment driving both.
China's corridor system in one view — SLF ceiling, excess-reserve floor, 7-day reverse repo anchor — plus the LPR chain, reserve requirements, monetary aggregates and the PBOC's own balance sheet.
Total social financing and new loans — the credit impulse that leads Chinese activity by two to three quarters, now increasingly driven by government bond issuance rather than private borrowing.
The epicenter of China's balance-sheet recession risk: development investment, starts and sales, 70-city prices, and the land revenue that used to fund local government.
Everything here is fetched by an open-source Python pipeline that talks directly to official APIs (NY Fed Markets, Treasury Fiscal Data, BEA, FRED, PBOC, NBS, MOF), lands in a cloud MySQL database, and refreshes automatically as new data are released. Charts are rendered server-side with Plotly. The full fetch code is on GitHub — for any series on this site, you can read exactly how it was built.
I'm Chenning Xu, an early-career financial analyst with a strong interest in — and a solid knowledge base on — rates and global macro. Keynes Watch began as my personal toolkit — turning the primary data scattered across official APIs into dashboards I could actually use — and I decided to keep it public. The name is a nod to the tradition the site leans on: Keynes, Kalecki, Minsky, Godley — economists who took accounting identities seriously.
Get in touch: chenningxuecon@gmail.com · LinkedIn · GitHub